Global leading indicators continue to weaken, suggesting global growth is poised to slow in the short term. However, there are also some signs of stabilisation. In US manufacturing ISM surprisingly improved in June, despite the details not being as strong as the headline. In China there are signs of stabilisation with signs that inventory cuts have run their course. Finally, Japan now appears to be recovering relatively fast in the wake of the earthquake. However, the European debt crisis has added additional uncertainty. We still expect the current weakness to be a temporary soft patch and expect the global economy to start improving in H2. Read more…

EUR/CHF:Although the market has recently broken to yet another fresh record low by 1.1800, price action over the past few days is looking rather constructive and could in fact be warning of the formation of a material base. Longer-term and medium-term studies are certainly looking quite stretched and a very promising bullish outside week formation after setting record lows could very well offer the necessary catalyst to force the initial onset of a bullish reversal pattern.

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USD Dollar (USD) – In forex trading, the Dollar strengthened against most of the major currencies as the Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and China’s decision to increase interest rates spurred demand for a refuge. Wall Street closed positive as the NASDAQ advanced by 0.29% and the Dow Jones by 0.45% respectively. Crude oil weakened by 0.2% and closed at $96.71 a barrel. Gold (XAU) increased by 1.1% and closed at $1,529.10 an ounce. Today, the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is expected to rise from 38K to 60K. Unemployment Claims are also expected to come out at 420K vs. 428K last week.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro fell against the Dollar for a third day after Portugal became the second nation in the Eurozone, after Greece, to receive a junk credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service. The EUR/USD’s momentum is still bearish as long as the Euro is trading below the 1.4400 level, the next support level on the one hour chart is located at 1.4280, and the Moving Average (MA) indicators support a negative momentum as well. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4286 and with a high of 1.4466. Today, interest rates are expected to increase from 1.25% to 1.50%, and there is an ECB Press Conference.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4328

Resistance 1.4345 1.4465 1.4555 Support 1.4285

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound extended losses against the Dollar after a surprise Chinese rate hike and renewed concerns over the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. As long as the GBP/USD is trading below the 1.6040 level, the negative trend could decline below 1.5900. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5947 and with a high of 1.6090. Today, the Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50%, the Asset Purchase Facility is expected to remain at 200B, and Manufacturing Production is expected to become positive from -1.5% to 1.00%.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6007

Resistance 1.6125 1.6265 1.6470 Support 1.5900

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen strengthened against the Dollar as the Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 53.3 last month from 54.6 in May, strengthening the Yen as a safety investment.  The USD/JPY is still struggling with 81.00-81.20 levels, and only if the pair breaks below the 80.30 level, will the JPY will become attractive. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.77 and with a high of 81.10. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 80.87

Resistance 81.00 81.20
Support 80.80 80.70 80.55

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar, touching the lowest level in almost a week after the Chinese government increased interest rates to cool its economy, sapping demand for higher yielding currencies. As long as the pair is trading above the 0.9600 level, the US Dollar’s negative trend is on hold. The next resistance level on the one hour chart is located at the 0.9700 level. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 0.9614 and with a high of 0.9694. Today, the Ivey PMI is expected to weaken from 69.1 to 66.30.

USD/CAD – Last: 0.9651

Resistance 0.9700

Support 0.9611 0.9580