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Talking Points

  • Market-wide Confidence on the Upswing, Threatening US Dollar
  • EU Summit Outcome Lifts Risk Appetite Along with the Euro
  • Plans for Euro Zone Stabilization to Hinder Growth, Rate Hikes

Sentiment is on the upswing after yesterday’s EU leaders’ summit outlined a powerful bailout for Greece, effectively meeting the country’s funding needs for the foreseeable future (contingent on its ability to meet austerity requirements). S&P 500 stock index futures – a proxy for risk appetite at large – are firmly in positive territory in late overnight trade, pointing to losses for the safe-haven US Dollar and Swiss Franc as well as the Japanese Yen as chipper investors reinstate carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The Germa

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Eurozone debt crisis dominated headlines last week and the highly anticipated EU summit delivered new measures to fund Greece and stabilize the situation. The results gave the common currency a strong boost towards the end of the week but Euro is so far limited below near term resistance level against dollar, yen and swissy and thus, there is no confirmation of a return to confidence. Improved risk sentiments, though, helped commodity currencies rally across the board together with strength in equities. New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar were both strong while Canadian dollar pared much of the earlier gains on weak inflation data. The greenback was broadly lower except versus swiss franc and dollar index’s breach of 74 level suggested more downside to come ahead.

The EU summit ended with new measures to fund Greece and stabilize the sovereign crisis in the Eurozone as a whole.

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GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. 2Q GDP Report

Trading the News: U.K. GDP

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 07/26/2011 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD

Expected: 0.1%

Previous: 0.5%

DailyFX Forecast: -0.2% to 0.2%

Why Is This Event Important:

Economic activity in the U.K. is projected to increase 0.1% in the second-quarter following the 0.5% expansion during the first-three months of 2011, and the slowing recovery is likely to dampen demands for the British Pound as the central bank continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy. A

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Swiss Franc is regaining some strength in early European session after solid economic data. Swiss retail sales jumped sharply by 7.5% yoy in May, comparing to -0.2% yoy fall in April. SVME PMI also unexpectedly rose to 59.2 in May, comparing to consensus of a fall to 57.5. The recovery in both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF might have completed yesterday after GDP disappointment which triggered some profit taking on Swiss longs. But the bullish trend in the swiss franc didn’t change and we’d anticipate another record high against dollar and euro in near term as the trend extends.

Aussie was up earlier today China PMI manufacturing data, which dropped less than expected to 52 in May. That’s the lowest reading in nine months but was better than consensus of 51.6. Australia GDP also contracted more than expected by -1.2% qoq in Q1 comparing to expectation of -0.3% qoq.

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