Short-term correlation studies suggest crude prices are seeing some re-coupling with market-wide sentiment trends after tensions between Iran and Western powers overtook the spotlight last week. This puts the spotlight on the Eurozone with traders focused on the outcome of the ECB interest rate decision and a meeting of the currency bloc’s finance ministers meant to finalize agreement on the second Greek bailout.

Markets seem reasonably sanguine about whatever happens with Greece. EU banks borrowed close to €500 billion from the ECB in December and Greece has about €300 billion in outstanding bonds, so a market-wide credit crunch is now relatively unlikely even if talks fail and default occurs. Traders will want details on what (if any) additional measures will be taken to strengthen the firewall between sovereign stress and the banking sector from the ECB however.

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EUR/USD: 1-Hour

For the past couple of the days, EUR/USD has been rallying strongly. That being said, I think it’s safe to say that the pair’s trend is up, which means going for long trades is a good idea. Looking at the 1-hour chart, we can see that the pair is currently on retracement mode as it makes its way to a former broken resistance. If you’re bullish on the pair, this level could be a nice opportunity to buy at a cheaper level and ride the trend, especially since the level lines up nicely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

NZD/USD: 4-hour

Now let’s examine a pair whose uptrend could end very soon. As you can see, NZD/USD has been moving up day after day for quite a while now.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $99.58 // +1.12 // +1.14%

Geopolitical tension appears to be taking over as the main catalyst for crude oil prices. Indeed, correlations with measures of risk appetite – the S&P 500 as well as the MSCI World ex US index – are substantially diminished as all eyes turn to the escalating saber-rattling between the West and Iran, with the EU now set to join the US in boycotting the country’s energy exports and setting off worries of a retaliatory shut-down of the Strait of Hormuz.

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