A day ahead of the South African central bank’s (SARB) policy rate announcement, South African June inflation numbers will be released. We expect June headline inflation to climb to 5.1% y/y from 4.6% y/y in May and the current market consensus is very near our forecast at 5.0%.

Another economic data to be released in South Africa today is the May retail sales figures. The current market consensus points to a drop in retail sales to 7.2% y/y, from 9.8% y/y in April. With the 12-month moving average in retail sales currently at 6.7%, April numbers were well above the averages sales seen in the last one year.

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