EURO, JAP YEN and EUROYEN

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EURUSD, USDJPY and EURJPY by registering at

USDCHF @ 0.9175/78…Ranged
R: 0.9185200 / 0.925060
S: 0.912000 / 0.9060

DollarSwiss remains silent. The broader 0.91009250 sideways range remains intact. While below 0.9200, a test of 0.912000 on the downside is possible. A break below 0.9100 can take it further down towards 0.9060. The rally failed to extend to trigger our Limit Buy order. However, will still wait sell only near the upper of the range.

Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 10K at 0.9250, SL 0.9330, TP 0.9065
 

GBPUSD @ 1.5706/09…100DMA Support holding well
R: 1.575060 / 1.5780 / 1.5800
S: 1.5677 / 1.565040 / 1.5600

Cable fell to a low of 1.5675 during the day and has bounced back once again.

Read more…

Short-term correlation studies suggest crude prices are seeing some re-coupling with market-wide sentiment trends after tensions between Iran and Western powers overtook the spotlight last week. This puts the spotlight on the Eurozone with traders focused on the outcome of the ECB interest rate decision and a meeting of the currency bloc’s finance ministers meant to finalize agreement on the second Greek bailout.

Markets seem reasonably sanguine about whatever happens with Greece. EU banks borrowed close to €500 billion from the ECB in December and Greece has about €300 billion in outstanding bonds, so a market-wide credit crunch is now relatively unlikely even if talks fail and default occurs. Traders will want details on what (if any) additional measures will be taken to strengthen the firewall between sovereign stress and the banking sector from the ECB however.

Read more…

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $99.58 // +1.12 // +1.14%

Geopolitical tension appears to be taking over as the main catalyst for crude oil prices. Indeed, correlations with measures of risk appetite – the S&P 500 as well as the MSCI World ex US index – are substantially diminished as all eyes turn to the escalating saber-rattling between the West and Iran, with the EU now set to join the US in boycotting the country’s energy exports and setting off worries of a retaliatory shut-down of the Strait of Hormuz.

Read more…

Hungarian talks with the IMF and EU reached stalemate as international lenders seem to keep a firm stance towards Budapest. According to comments after the meeting of Tamas Fellegi, Hungarian negotiator, and Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, there are several obstacles to the deal with IMF: Christine Lagarde’s top priority is probably the assurance of central bank’s independence.

Although the IMF does not directly push Hungary to abandon further changes in constitution, it wants to see trilateral agreement of IMF-EU-Hungary. That means the opinion of EU on all recent constitutional changes is going to be crucial. The European Commission should complete the analysis of new Hungarian laws tomorrow. Although Hungarian government declared it may consider to change the laws, if these are found to be in contradiction with Europeans norms and values, it is not going to be easy for the Hungarian PM to tackle such a severe political defeat.
Read more…