EUR/USD: 1-Hour

For the past couple of the days, EUR/USD has been rallying strongly. That being said, I think it’s safe to say that the pair’s trend is up, which means going for long trades is a good idea. Looking at the 1-hour chart, we can see that the pair is currently on retracement mode as it makes its way to a former broken resistance. If you’re bullish on the pair, this level could be a nice opportunity to buy at a cheaper level and ride the trend, especially since the level lines up nicely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

NZD/USD: 4-hour

Now let’s examine a pair whose uptrend could end very soon. As you can see, NZD/USD has been moving up day after day for quite a while now.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $99.58 // +1.12 // +1.14%

Geopolitical tension appears to be taking over as the main catalyst for crude oil prices. Indeed, correlations with measures of risk appetite – the S&P 500 as well as the MSCI World ex US index – are substantially diminished as all eyes turn to the escalating saber-rattling between the West and Iran, with the EU now set to join the US in boycotting the country’s energy exports and setting off worries of a retaliatory shut-down of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Like other high beta currencies, the pound is finding support against the US dollar today as risk appetite makes an appearance on the FX market.

The pound is gaining as good news in Europe bolsters equities, as well as riskier currencies. There is some hope that the eurozone will be able to get through this, as French costs come down, a Greek appears almost worked out, and buyers are willing to take Spanish bonds.

Pound often moves up when equities do well, and right now equities are getting a boost from good news in the US, as well as in Europe. For now, it looks as though high beta currencies, like the pound and euro, are going to find good support. 

Hungarian talks with the IMF and EU reached stalemate as international lenders seem to keep a firm stance towards Budapest. According to comments after the meeting of Tamas Fellegi, Hungarian negotiator, and Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, there are several obstacles to the deal with IMF: Christine Lagarde’s top priority is probably the assurance of central bank’s independence.

Although the IMF does not directly push Hungary to abandon further changes in constitution, it wants to see trilateral agreement of IMF-EU-Hungary. That means the opinion of EU on all recent constitutional changes is going to be crucial. The European Commission should complete the analysis of new Hungarian laws tomorrow. Although Hungarian government declared it may consider to change the laws, if these are found to be in contradiction with Europeans norms and values, it is not going to be easy for the Hungarian PM to tackle such a severe political defeat.
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